Sunday Morning Weather Briefing Video: Wind, Rain, Storms for Monday evening through Tuesday Morning

A stormy pattern will continue across Alabama and the Deep South through the next two weeks with Mother Nature throwing a bit of everything at us: wind, severe weather, heavy rain, and even a hint of a couple of rounds of potential winter mischief. I know that will be music to some of your ears, and anathema to others, so let’s see who will be pleased and who will be disappointed.

FOR YOUR SUNDAY: Low clouds hung tough through the night and temperatures settled into the 30s across the area. Today will see gradual clearing, with most places except the Northeast mostly sunny by noon. High clouds will zip across the area during the afternoon in a fast southwesterly flow aloft. Afternoon highs will be in the 40s up North, with lower and middle 50s across Central Alabama. Tonight should be fair and cold with just some high clouds. Lows will be chilly, dropping to near or below freezing almost everywhere in North and Central Alabama, ranging from 28-33F at the major stations. The normally colder spots will be a little colder.

NEW WORK WEEK: Monday will start off partly cloudy, but clouds will thicken as we go through the morning and our winds will really be picking up. A surface low will be tracking towards the Missouri Bootheel and Illinois during the day and raising a warm sector up and over us. Rain will arrive late Monday afternoon and overspread the area Monday evening. It appears some decent instability will be moving from Louisiana into Mississippi Monday night, pushing into West Central and Southwest Alabama after midnight. Winds at 5,000 feet will be screaming out of the south at over 70 mph. This will produce extremely high wind shear values. There will be a small window for severe weather across the southern half of Central Alabama from about 2 a.m. through 10 a.m. as a strong line of storms, perhaps with embedded supercells marches across the state. The threat should weaken and shrink southward with time during the early morning hours. The SPC Day Two includes a slight risk for Southwest Alabama and a marginal risk for basically the southern half of the state. There is definitely a tornado threat for southwestern sections of Alabama late Monday night into early Tuesday.

REMARKABLE WINDS MONDAY: Even outside thunderstorms Monday and Monday night, winds will become extremely strong. Winds will quickly increase during the morning hours, averaging 12-18 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Monday night they will increase to 20-30 mph with gusts to 45-50 mph. Wind advisories will almost certainly be required Monday afternoon and Monday night across much of the state.

TUESDAY RAIN ENDING: Rain will be ending from the west Tuesday even as we track potential severe weather in the southeastern part of Central Alabama during the morning. The clearing line should quickly follow the back of the rain shield with sunshine return during the late morning. We will start off mainly in the 50s, with a few 60s over South Central Alabama, and highs will range from 54-64F. Winds will continue to gust to about 30 mph. A little wraparound moisture will work its way into North Alabama late in the day, likely leading to a little light rain. Tennessee will see a few snow flurries, but our atmospheric profiles should be warm enough from our precip to remain all liquid. Tuesday night lows will be cold, in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN: It looks like most areas of Alabama will receive 2-3 inches of rain Monday into Tuesday. The Weather Prediction center does have all of the state in a marginal risk for flooding on Monday, shifting eastward and northeastward up the East Coast on Tuesday.

MIDWEEK: Another negatively tilted trough will be swinging towards Missouri on Wednesday but our moisture will have been scoured out by then. For us in Alabama, our weather will feature decreasing cloudiness, diminishing winds, but chilly temps with highs in the 40s across the Tennessee Valley ranging up into the middle 50s in Central Alabama. Thursday will feature a mix of clouds and sun, a little breezy with occasional gusts to 18 mph and highs between 54-61F.

THE WEEKEND: A stronger system digs further southward into New Mexico and Texas by Thursday night into Friday, bringing rain back to Alabama during the day, ending Friday night. Rainfall amounts with this system will not be as heavy, with amounts ranging from one half to one inch. Saturday will feature clearing, cold, and breezy conditions with highs remaining in the 40s in most locations.

BEACHCAST: Nice today along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida with highs near 60F. Stormy Monday into Tuesday. Severe weather is possible late Monday night and Tuesday morning with a decent threat of tornadoes. Winds will gust to 50 mph Monday night and early Tuesday. Surf will increase to 6-9 feet Monday and Tuesday and the rip current risk will be high. The water temperatures have dropped into the upper 50s.

Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

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WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel will entertain Tomas Pucik from the European Severe Storms Laboratory. It will be a fascinating comversation. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live on our new YouTube channel for the show.You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1973: Atlanta was paralyzed by a severe ice storm. A blanket of ice covered North Georgia including Atlanta, triggering a rash of wrecks and power blackouts. In neighboring Alabama, a glaze was reported across the northwestern third of the state from Marion County to Jackson County with extensive damage to power lines and timber. Power was knocked out to 90% of Russellville in Franklin County, and Athens in Limestone County was completely without power. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather