Slight Risk Expands; Strong to Severe Storms Arrive This evening

For now, it is quiet across all of North and Central Alabama as the radar is free from any shower activity at this point. However, that will likely change big time once we get into the evening and overnight hours. Almost everyone has cloudy skies as of 11 am with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 70s. Demopolis, Selma, and Troy were at 73º. Gadsden was the cool spot at 59º. Birmingham was at 65º.

The latest update from the SPC has expanded the Slight Risk further east across the area, which it now includes all of North Alabama, and all of Central Alabama west of a line from Anniston to Jemison to Linden. The rest of Central Alabama is under a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Tornadoes and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible, along with large hail. The main window for the threat of severe weather will be from 5pm this evening in the northwestern parts of North & Central Alabama and ending around 8am Sunday morning in the southeastern parts of Central Alabama.

The latest run of the HRRR is showing that there will be a good amount of instability in place for these storms to feed off of once they move into the state, some reaching as high as 1,300 J/kg. There will also be plenty of wind shear in place, and helicity values across the northern half of the state are high enough to support rotating updrafts.

With that information pulled in on this latest run, the Significant Tornado Parameter have the higher values over the Tennessee Valley and dropping off as you move southward. However, any value over 1 means that a significant tornado can occur. Once we get to around 2am Sunday morning, much of the area will have much calmer weather, while the extreme east and southeastern parts of Central Alabama will continue to have to stay weather aware at least through daybreak or a little later.

I know it has been a while since we have had a decent severe weather threat across the area, so now is the time to go over your severe weather safety plan and to have your safe place ready and stock with the necessary supplies… including a NOAA Weather Radio, flashlights, hard-soled shoes, a whistle or fog horn, and a fully charged cell phone. We’ll have updates on the blog through the rest of the quiet time and through the entire event. Have a good reliable way to receive warnings.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather