Late Afternoon Update on Idalia As It Nears Hurricane Strength

Here is the forecasted wind band for Idalia:

Idalia has been exhibiting another sharp burst of convection this afternoon and it appears an eye may be trying to form.

A NOAA plane is Enroute from Miami and an Air Force plane is Eneoute from St. Croix. When they are on station, we will have a better idea of whether the intensity is catching up with the satellite presentation. The GIV mission high altitude mission is working its way southward across the Gulf. Its data will help inform the 0zz runs of the model tonight.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Indian Pass Florida.  The Hurricane Warning has also been extended westward to Indian Pass.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from west of Indian Pass westward to Mexico Beach.

INTENSITY
Idalia will become a hurricane this evening and a major hurricane by tomorrow evening as rapid intensification is now explicitly forecast. Top winds at 36 hours are forecast to be 120 mph but the hurricane could strengthen right up to landfall Wednesday morning.

LANDFALL
is expected Wednesday morning, perhaps mid to late morning in the Florida Big Bend about 30 miles west of Cedar Key. This puts that vulnerable community in significant danger with a large surge over much of the island. Winds will beabove hurricane force as well with significant damage. This will be the same near and within 50-60 miles of the center landfall point. A very large surge will be measured over a very large area. Check latest advisory for latest.

There is good model consistency but just a slight deviation could bring the center to landfall further south towards Cedar Ley or lower or toward St Marks or even Apalachicola. We can’t let our guard down. Even Tampa and points up the coast to Cedar Key need to be ready.

SOME MODEL DATA
…HWRF landfall Wednesday 15z (10 a.m. CDT) near St Marks…intensity 931mb…but strengthening…winds 115 knots 132 mph.

…HMON central pressure at landfall 953 mb 15z (10 a.m.) near St. Marks…95 knots.

…HAFS-A… 951mb pressure…wind 98kts…a little further east – largely uninhabited area fortunately…but small changes can make a big difference.

…HAFS-B…much stronger…pressure 925mb…113 knot winds.

…GFS…a iittle closer to Carrabelle or Eastpoint…that makes more concern for Apalachicola. Tropical storm warning has been extended west to Mexico Beach.

ALABAMA IMPACTS
Looks like tropical storm force winds will stay southeast of our state. There will be gusty winds over southeastern Alabama late tomorrow night and Wednesday. Showers band well to the north of the hurricane Tuesday afternoon and night…continuing into Wednesday morning.

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