Sunday Weather Briefing Video: Severe Weather Possible Today and Monday

A few thunderstorms developed over eastern Mississippi and moved into western Alabama last evening. Some of them became strong to severe with the high levels of instability. There were a few reports of wind damage, including multiple trees down around Salem in Fayette County. There were a few other reports of power lines down, and several reports of small hail. The storms slowly weakened as surface temperatures slowly receded during the late evening, but not before they caused some scenic lightning as they crossed through the I-59 and 20 corridors after 10 o’clock. The storm is Fayette County was the strongest late, and it had plenty of lighting in it for sure.

FOR YOUR SUNDAY: Alabama continues on the eastern edge of the upper high-pressure ridge still, and this means that disturbances rounding the bend can bring complexes of showers and thunderstorms to the state. Indications are that storms will be fairly numerous this afternoon, moving northwest to southeast, and pushing out of the area by 8-9 p.m. tonight Severe weather, particularly damaging winds, will be possible with the stronger storms today. Otherwise, it will be partly sunny and hot today, with highs in the lower and middle 90s. Heat advisories are in effect for roughly the southern two-thirds of the state for apparent temperatures reaching 102-106F this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the 70s. Dewpoints will be in the muggy mid 70s.

MONDAY ACTIVE TOO: More storms will warm in the hot, sticky airmass across Alabama on Monday, again moving northwest to southeast mainly during the afternoon. With high temperatures again in the lower and middle 90s, and dewpoints in the middle 70s, there will be plenty of fuel for the storms. Throw in an approaching boundary and a little extra shear, and severe weather is again possible. In fact, the SPC has a slight risk out for northern Alabama on Monday, with a marginal risk for much of the rest of the state. Heat index values will be in the dangerous category again, so look for heat advisories to be issued once again for Monday.

THE REST OF THE WEEK: Indications are that the lower pressure across the northern tier of states will help push Monday’s boundary southward into South Alabama on Tuesday, lowering our temperatures a couple of degrees and the apparent temperatures enough to drop eliminate the need for heat advisories. Highs will be between 89-90F Tuesday through Friday, with storm limited to South Central and South Alabama on Tuesday. The boundary will be around into mid-week with the potential for passing disturbances to bring rounds of showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday, most likely during the evening hours.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday looks like it could feature another batch of showers and storms especially during the late afternoon and overnight. Sunday looks like the drier of the two days. Highs will be in the lower 90s, Lows will be in the lower 70s.

WEEK TWO VOODOO: The GFS is hinting at a tropical system moving onto the Middle Texas Coast around the 16th and 17th. Plausible with couple of strong tropical waves moving into the Gulf. That moisture could be drawn out way late in the week and into the weekend. That spells rainy and cooler. Fine with us.

NATIONALLY: Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings blanket a large part of the lower tier of states from Northeast Florida to the Desert Southwest, including here in Alabama.

BEACHCAST: It is definitely the Dog Days of Summer along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Highs in the lower 90s, high humidity, and water temperatures in the mid 80s. Still, it’s the beach! The chance of a daily storm is pretty high over the next week, but it won’t rain every day and Monday and Tuesday look the driest overall. Wave heights are running 1-2 feet and the overall rip current risk is low. Still, obey the warning flags. They are there for your protection.
Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

IN THE TROPICS: Other than that potential mischief in the Gulf in about ten days, the tropical Atlantic is quiet. In the Pacific, Major Hurricane Dora will be passing well south of Hawaii by Tuesday. Top winds are around 145 mph, but it is expected to slowly weaken. Tropical Storm Eugene is closer in to the Mexican Coast, and will not get strong like Dora. Top winds are about 65 mph, and Eugene will likely not become a hurricane.

DANCING WITH THE STATS: The high temperature at Phoenix topped out at 109F back on August 1st, breaking a 31 day streak of 110+ degree heat there. This easily smashed the previous record of 18 set in 1974. And interestingly, every day since then has been at 110F or hotter, and forecast data for the next two weeks shows that highs at or above 110F may happen every single day, easily coming second or perhaps threatening the new 31 day streak. And to think, only one degrees on the 1st stood between the recent record streak being 50 days or more!

ADVERTISE WITH US: Deliver your message to a highly engaged audience by advertising on the AlabamaWX.com website. We have a lot of big plans for this year. Don’t miss out! We can customize a creative, flexible, and affordable package that will suit your organization’s needs. Contact me, Bill Murray, at (205) 687-0782 and let’s talk.

WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel will entertain one of the world’s leading experts on heatbursts. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live on our new YouTube channel for the show.You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 2001: Tropical Storm Barry moved inland on the Gulf Coast near Fort Walton Beach, Florida around midnight with top winds of 60 mph. The storm caused $30 million in damage. Heavy rains spread northwestward across Alabama. Up to 3 inches of rain fell in the Birmingham area. One of the casualties of the storm was the N’Sync concert at Legion Field. It was cancelled due to the rain. Birmingham picked up a wind gust of 31 mph. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather