Sunday Morning Weather Video: Severe Storms Likely Today

Severe weather is a part of the Alabama weather picture again today as a humid airmass and approaching frontal boundary conspire to fire up thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Let’s dig into the details…

THE PATTERN: A weak ridge extends over the Southwest and western Texas. There is high pressure over the Pacific Northwest. The rest of the country is dominated by relatively low pressure with a big upper low over Hudson Bay that is troughing down into the Great Lakes. There is a shortwave trough moving through eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri early this morning, that will be a player in our weather forecast today.

STARTING OFF YOUR SUNDAY: Low clouds cover parts of the area this morning, while sunshine is prevailing in other areas. Clouds should thicken pretty quickly though as we go through the morning hours. Temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 80s, held back just a bit by the clouds.

SUNDAY SEVERE: The atmosphere will be juicy and unstable by afternoon. As that upper level disturbance swings our way, and a boundary presses in from the north, the stage will be set for severe thunderstorms over a large part of Alabama. The SPC has been foretelling this for a couple of days and they have a slight risk up for most of the state for today Right now, the HRRR shows a large MCS moving into the state by late afternoon. Under that scenario, there will be a significant threat of damaging winds with it. It will move across the northern and Central parts of the state during the evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper to lower 70s.

NEW WORK WEEK: It appears that the boundary will move down into North Central Alabama by Monday, filtering drier air into the Tennessee Valley and cutting off the showers and storms for them. Showers and storms will still fire to the south over the rest of the state. The boundary might make it a little further south, pushing the showers and storms deeper into South Alabama. The northern half of the state could be dry Tuesday if that occurs. In any case, temperatures will be pressing upwards through the lower 90s.

MIDWEEK: The southwestern ridge will begin to flex its muscle a bit by midweek, and we gradually break out of this northwesterly flow pattern as a weak ridge builds across the southern U.S. At the same time, the little respite from storms for North and Central Alabama will be short lived as the front to our south fizzles and moisture works its way back in from the south. That means typical widely scattered summertime showers and storms of the afternoon and evening variety Wednesday and Thursday. Highs should make the lower and middle 90s. Lows will be in the middle 70s.

THE WEEKEND: High pressure will begin to make a comeback by Wednesday, spreading out in a flat ridge across the southern tier of states. Meanwhile, another upper low will be forming over Canada bringing troughing to the northern tier of states. This will allow a boundary to sink south again. Friday is probably just widely scattered summertime storms again, but our rain chances could be ramping up by Saturday and Sunday as the boundary encroaches on us. It will still be hot and humid, with daytime highs in the lower and middle 90s. Overnight lows will be in the middle 70s.

WOODOO TERRITORY: The week two periods looks like it will start off with an upper low trying to rotate into the area. That spells good chances of rain and storms in the first half of the week. A deeper ridge builds in over the Southeast for the latter part of week two bringing drier and hot conditions, but its eastern end breaks down again by the weekend, bringing back the rain.

DROUGHTWATCH: We are still in pretty good shape drought wise here in Alabama. There is a little bit of D1 Moderate Drought in the western part of the Tennessee Valley, with abnormally dry conditions across our northwestern counties and the rest of the Tennessee Valley into Northeast Alabama. The northwestern corner of the state got over an inch Friday, and rainfall amounts generally look good over most of North and Central Alabama over the next two weeks, with Northwest Alabama perhaps getting 4-6 inches of rain if the boundaries keep pestering the area. The rest of the northern half of the state should see at least 2-3 inches of rain. Southeastern sections of Central Alabama will be the driest.

BEACHCAST: Really good chances of rain and thunderstorms along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida in the week ahead. The clouds and rain will help hold temperatures back a bit, to between 88-91F each day, with lows creeping up to near 80F. Sultry. Water temperatures are in the lower 80s. The rip current risk will be low over the weekend, but a little higher during the week ahead.

Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

IN THE TROPICS: In the tropical Atlantic, nothing looks threatening over the next two weeks. A tropical wave is tracking into the Central Caribbean, spreading showers and storms in its wake. A second wave over the eastern Atlantic has been rendered harmless by dry, dust-laden Saharan air. There have been indications from the Euro and the longer range CFS model that we could see increasing activity toward the middle to end of the month.

HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST RATCHETED UP: The experts at Colorado State University have upped their numbers for this year’s hurricane season. They now are calling for 18 named storms, which means 15 to go since we already have had 3 named. They upped the ante to 9 hurricanes with four of them becoming major hurricanes. They have also raised the amount of ACE to be expended by all these storms to 160, which is well above the long term ACE average of 123. In fact, 160 is referred to as “hyperactive”. Lots of uncertainty with this forecast of course, especially since El Nino conditions would tend to limit tropical cyclone development. But the really warm waters over the Atlantic may offset this.

NATIONALLY: Smoke from Canadian wildfires may return to the northern U.S. over the next few days as a low pressure trough in eastern Canada may push it into places like North Dakota and northern Minnesota.

DANCING WITH THE STATS: 109F at El Paso on Friday was a record for the date. Their hottest all time temperature is 114F.

ADVERTISE WITH US: Deliver your message to a highly engaged audience by advertising on the AlabamaWX.com website. We have a lot of big plans for this year. Don’t miss out! We can customize a creative, flexible, and affordable package that will suit your organization’s needs. Contact me, Bill Murray, at (205) 687-0782 and let’s talk.

WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel entertained SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey and his daughter Hannah Strong. Hannah is a television meteorologist in Louisville. It was one of the best shows of all time. And Monday night we have a real treat for you. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live on our new YouTube channel for the show.You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1999: Three inches of rain fell at Las Vegas NV from a monsoon thunderstorm, most of it in just one hour. The storm was the worst in Vegas in many years, turning streets into rivers, washing away bridges and car and killing two people. McCarran International Airport was closed for an hour. Many tourists took refuge in the casinos along the strip. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Weather Xtreme Videos