Sunday Weather Briefing Video: Severe Weather Possible Today

Severe weather is a threat for Alabama today, tonight, and possibly Monday morning. Let’s dig into the details.

SETTING THE STAGE: A shortwave trough moving through the Great Lakes and a southward moving cold front will serve as a trigger. The airmass over Alabama and The Mid-South will be very unstable today and there will be sufficient bulk shear for severe storms. The first batch of storms will reach the Alabama/Tennessee border by late morning to early afternoon. They will march south during the late morning and early afternoon. The current forecast thinking is that the second round, which will come in the late afternoon to overnight hours, has better severe potential compared to the earlier round. Some model guidance suggests a third round during the overnight/early morning hours on Monday, which will bear watching in subsequent model runs.

THE THREATS: Damaging winds and hail are the biggest threats across Alabama. Fortunately, tornadoes do not appear to be a threat. There are uncertainties in both timing and evolution of each potential round.

REST OF THE TIME: Today and Monday will feature partly cloudy skies with highs in the 80s today and lower 90s Monday.

REST OF THE WEEK: Tuesday and Wednesday look dry behind the cold front. Looks for a slight chance of an afternoon storm Thursday and Friday. And the temperatures will be soaring, reaching the lower and middle 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, and upper 90s Thursday and Friday.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Looks like scattered mainly afternoon and evening storms may return by Saturday and Sunday. The very hot temperatures will back off just a tad, but 90s will still be widespread.

GOODBYE TO BRET: Tropical Storm Bret weakened into an open wave over the Central Caribbean Sea Saturday afternoon. The NHC has written its last advisory on Bret.

CINDY NOT FAR BEHIND: Tropical Storm Cindy is passing about 560 miles east northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico this morning. Top winds are less than 50 mph now, and dissipation is expected within 72 hours as it moves into an increasingly unfavorable environment. The GFS does not believe that prognostication and predicts it will strengthen with time before landfalling in the eastern Maritime provinces of Canada next Friday night. The European is having none of that and dissipates it within 48 hours.

BEACHCAST: One weakening bath of storms will reach the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida late tonight and early Monday. Perhaps another on Wednesday morning. But there will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day this week. Highs will be in the lower 90s. Lows will be in the middle 70s. Water temperatures are running in the upper 70s. The rip current risk this week will be low to moderate.

Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

DANCING WITH THE STATS: If you were standing on a corner in Winslow, Arizona Saturday morning, you were chilly. The 38F yesterday morning was a record for the date. The Grand Canyon Airport dropped to 28F, Flagstaff to 29F, and the NWS Office in Flagstaff dropped to 23F, all records for the date.

NATIONALLY: Quite the opposite story across southeastern Arizona, where excessive heat watches are in effect for Monday and Tuesday. Heat advisories and warnings extend all the way eastward to western Tennessee and Mississippi.

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WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel will entertain a group of National Weather Service Southern Region meteorologists including Tim Brice and Jen McNatt, who are leading a women’s symposium for their colleagues.. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live on our new YouTube channel for the show.You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1957: At noon, the first advisory was written for Hurricane Audrey in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, some 300 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Navy Reconnaissance indicated that the storm had rapidly become a hurricane, but it was not expected to intensify further. A hurricane watch was advised along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. A failure to communicate led to 416 fatalities two days later when the storm intensified rapidly to category three status and increased its forward speed, catching southwestern Louisianans off guard. It is the 7th deadliest U.S. landfalling hurricane. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather