Mesoscale Discussion 424: Tornado Risk Continues to Shift Across the Tennessee Valley

SUMMARY… Severe storms — capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes — continue moving eastward across the Tennessee Valley area.

DISCUSSION… Latest radar loop shows a band of storms moving across Middle Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi at this time, with several embedded severe/rotating storms. Along with risk for wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range, a few storms appear to be either currently tornadic, or capable of producing a tornado in the near term.

Two of these supercells — one now moving into southern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi and the other crossing central Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi — both appear to have produced tornadoes within the past 15 to 30 minutes.

Given the degree of shear indicated by KGWX and KHTX WSR-88d VWPs, and mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, the environment downstream from the ongoing storms remains favorable to support a continuation of risk through the remainder of WW 101, and potentially farther east still — which may require new/downstream WW issuance into eastern Tennessee.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather