Showers Possible Later Today; Strong/Severe Storms Later This Week

ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD: We have some active weather ahead for Alabama this week… it begins today with a wind advisory for the northern 2/3 of the state. Gradient winds (not related to thunderstorms) could gust to 35/40 mph in spots this afternoon along and north of U.S. 80. Otherwise, we will bring in a chance of scattered showers this afternoon and tonight, but nothing too heavy or widespread. The day will be mild with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s… but low 80s are possible again today for the far southern part of the state.

Tomorrow will be the most pleasant day of the week… expect a good supply of sunshine with highs well up in the 70s again.

WEDNESDAY: SPC has introduced a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms for the northern 2/3 of Alabama Wednesday. Scattered storms that form Wednesday afternoon/evening could produce small hail and strong, gusty winds. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a warm day with more clouds than sun… the high will be close to 80 degrees.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Thursday will be a warm, breezy day with developing showers along with a high in the 77-81 degree range. A more meaningful severe weather threat unfolds Thursday night into Friday morning as a dynamic weather system will race through the state. SPC has much of the state covered in a severe weather risk during the time frame.

For now it looks like the main window for severe storms will come from about 9:00 p.m. Thursday until 9:00 a.m. Friday, and the main threat will come from damaging straight line winds. But, a tornado or two can’t be ruled out based on the forecast wind profiles. This will be similar to the system that moved through Oklahoma last night… very strong dynamics (wind fields), but marginal thermodynamics (instability). We will be much more specific about the magnitude of the threat once we get within 60 hours of the event and can see high resolution models.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weekend will be dry with sunny days and clear cold nights. Lowes drop into the 30s over the northern half of the state, and colder spots across North Alabama could be close to freezing early Sunday morning. Highs will be in the 55-65 degree range Saturday, and generally in the 60s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week looks dry and mild with highs in the 70s; showers and storms will likely return by Thursday or Friday. See the daily Weather Briefing video for maps, graphics, and more details.

LATER IN MARCH: Winter isn’t over… from CPC (NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center): “There is higher than normal confidence in a pattern change by mid-March that will bring below average temperatures into the eastern and southern U.S. This is a result of 1) robust circulation patterns in both the Tropics and the Arctic and 2) an ongoing sudden stratospheric warming event that can lead to cold air outbreaks. However, given the current forecast lead time, the eventual weather and potential impacts during this period remain uncertain at this time.”

ON THIS DATE IN 1999: At least six tornadoes touched down in Alabama, including an EF-2 that moved through Blount County at Locust Fork. Two or three large barns were demolished, a sturdy brick home lost Roof off house near Locust Fork in Blount county. a portion of its roof, and a small wood frame was completely deroofed. One minor injury occurred in the wood frame house.

ON THIS DATE IN 2010: A magnitude 8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of central Chili at 3:34 local time. The quake triggered a tsunami that devastated several coastal towns in south-central Chile. Tsunami warnings were issued in 53 countries. In addition, waves caused minor damage in the San Diego area and the Tohoku region of Japan.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

Loo for the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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