Sunday Weather Briefing Video: Rain Moving Out, Severe Storms Possible Thursday

The rain is moving out this morning after a chilly, rainy Saturday across the area. The upper low that we have been possibly worried about causing a little wintry mischief seems to be behaving this morning. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a little snow mix in with the rain over northeastern Alabama this morning, and we are keeping an eye on that. The next weather story for Alabama will be the potential for severe weather on Thursday. The devil’s in the details, or so they say, so let’s dig in…

FOR YOUR SUNDAY: We’re getting off to a cool start on this Sunday morning with light rain in the process of departing from eastern sections. Temperatures are in the 30s up North, with mostly lower 40s elsewhere. Skies will be clearing from the west during the day, but it may take until almost dark for eastern sections to clear. Lows tonight will be below freezing over the northern third of the area, with lower and middle 30s across the rest of Central Alabama.

NICE DAY TOMORROW: Monday is looking good, with an ample supply of sunshine, and temperatures warming into the lower and middle 60s in most areas.

CLOUDING UP TUESDAY: Our next storm system will be taking shape by the time you get up on Tuesday morning. By that time low pressure will be over southeastern Colorado. This first system will take a more northerly track, up through Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. That will keep most of the dynamics well to the north of us. As the upper system weakens Tuesday night, a struggling frontal system will work its way into Alabama accompanied by a few showers. This will be after a day of increasing cloudiness and increasing temperatures will highs in the middle and upper 60s.

FRONT HANGS AROUND: Old weak front will stall somewhere around the I-59 Corridor on Wednesday, keeping showers in the forecast. It should begin moving back to the north as a warm front during the day, bring steady rain to North Alabama as it escapes back to Tennessee. The airmass over Alabama will already well-modified by the end of the day, setting the stage for more showers and storms for the next day. Wednesday highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY: The SPC is already outlooking all of Alabama for a 15% chance of severe weather on their Day 3 product. This follows on the heels of active weather to the west of Alabama Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Showers and storms will re-intensify over Mississippi by early Thursday afternoon and they will encounter unstable air over western Alabama by late afternoon. The storms will move across the state during the evening hours. The instability values are not off the charts, but with dewpoints in the middle 60s and a bit of a backing surface wind, strong to severe storms are certainly possible. It will be something to keep an eye on for sure, including the chance for a few tornadoes. High temperatures will be in the 70s area-wide on Thursday. It will be windy as well, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

FRIDAY CLEARING: High pressure will begin ridging over Alabama even as the rain moves out of eastern sections during the early morning hours. It stays breezy behind the frontal system, but skies should clear fairly quickly. Lows Friday night will be below-freezing over the northern half of the area.

WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD: Saturday and Sunday look to be dry, but cool. Highs will be centered around 54F and 62F on the respective days.

NEXT RAIN CHANCES: We may make it till late Tuesday before rain returns, but when it does, it will be with us for a while it appears. A stalled front and multiple waves of low pressure could keep us wet until the following Friday. The northern half of Alabama could see 2 inches from these Week Two systems, with an inch over southern parts of the state.

RAINFALL ADDING UP: If you were keeping score at home, you might be guessing that rainfall amounts will be heavy. Indeed, the GFS forecasts 6-8 inches of rain over the next 16 days over the northern half of Alabama, with up to 3 inches to the south. But as The Real Tuesday Weld sang,

It’s rainin’
It’s pourin’
But I ain’t complaining
‘Cause I love the rain

BEACHCAST: Rain will move out quickly this morning, and won’t return until Wednesday. But then, it will remain in the picture through Friday. The weekend looks like it will be nice. Temperatures will follow a roller-coaster path starting out near 60F today and rising into the 70s for midweek, but falling back into the 50s for Friday and Saturday. 60s should return on Sunday. Lows will range between 41F-66F, following the highs roughly in their journey. Water temperatures are around 60F. Wait, they’re going up?! Spring must be around the corner….

Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

NATIONALLY: All of the interesting weather across the United States is associated with the upper low over the Southeast. A mix of rain, freezing, rain, sleet, and snow is affecting areas from North Georgia to southwestern Virginia this morning. Travel will become a headache on I-81 through southwestern Virginia today.

DANCING WITH THE STATS: We’re used to seeing International Falls MN reporting in as the nation’s ice box. Weren’t they the location for all those Die Hard battery commercials in the 70s, with the cars starting right up after a night out on a frozen lake or something with temperatures below zero? Well yesterday, they established a record high for the date with 47F, easily breaking the old record of 44F.

ADVERTISE WITH US: Deliver your message to a highly engaged audience by advertising on the AlabamaWX.com website. We have a lot of big plans for this year. Don’t miss out! We can customize a creative, flexible, and affordable package that will suit your organization’s needs. Contact me, Bill Murray, at (205) 687-0782 and let’s talk.

WEATHERBRAINS: This week’s show was all about Snow Squall Warnings with a group from the NWS in State College, PA. Just putting a program into place like this is just shy of an act of Congress. Learn some of the pratfalls, unintended consequences, and victories from this amazing group of mets. Monday night, the panel will entertain a group from Pathfinders, continuing the discussion on weather and vehicle safety. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live on our new YouTube channel for the show.You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1899: The coldest airmass ever to invade North America was breaking records all over the central part of the country. On this frigid morning, it was -8F at Dallas, their all-time record low. Other all-time lows that morning included Amarillo at -16F, -13F at Little Rock, and -22F at Kansas City. It was a mind-bending _47F at Camp Clarke, NE. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS