Latest Mesoscale Discussion — Threat for Strong Tornadoes Continue
SUMMARY… Numerous strong supercells continue this afternoon with a threat for strong tornadoes.
DISCUSSION… Numerous supercells developed this afternoon with only a few confirmed tornadoes. However, these storms have congealed into a line of 5-6 dominant supercells extending from Clarke County, Mississippi to southwest of New Orleans. This storm evolution is seemingly more favorable for low-level updraft circulations as TDSs have recently been observed in Clarke County, Mississippi and south of Lake Pontchartrain from similar strength rotational velocity as the numerous supercells which lacked a clear TDS in the prior 1 to 2 hours. Therefore, as heating reaches its diurnal maximum, low-level flow continues to strengthen in association with the deepening meso-low, and the low-level jet strengthens to 60+ knots per LIX VWP, storms may be entering the period of greatest tornado potential.
The most favorable environment is currently near New Orleans where STP values of 4 to 5 exist with a couple supercells approaching from the Southwest. Therefore, portions of southeast Louisiana, including the New Orleans metro area may have the greatest chance for strong tornadoes over the next 1 to 2 hours.
Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.Subscribe
If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to receive more just like it.
