Sunday Morning Briefing: Colder Weather for the End of the Week

Our run of record and near-record warmth across Alabama is going to come to an end, but not before we deal with a couple of disturbances that will bring rain and storms to Alabama. The stronger system will move through on Wednesday with stronger storms. But the good news is that the only severe weather is expected to be over southwestern Alabama. It is, of course, something that we will watch carefully. Let’s go to the map wall.

A COMPLEX SYSTEM: A frontal system lies like a long string of Christmas lights across the southern United States, from New Mexico across the Lone Star state into northern Mississippi and Alabama. A little cold air damming across Georgia has repelled the frontal southward into North Florida. A series of low-pressure centers has been moving along the boundary along with some upper air disturbances in the flow up and over the weakening upper ridge over the Gulf. North Alabama has been underneath this highway of moisture, which is the remnants of an Atmospheric River, which we used to call the Pineapple Express. That flow has been bringing a tremendous amount of moisture from the Pacific across the southern tier of states. If you weren’t paying attention to the first one, don’t worry, there will be another in about a week. Plus, the flow off of a very warm Gulf of Mexico this week will bring deep moisture to the South early in the week. Meanwhile, as that weather maker moves Tuesday, it will encounter a brief ridge that will keep us mainly dry Monday and Tuesday.

WHEW: That’s a lot of big words, gaining an insight into how the atmosphere works is a great way to help you understand the why behind the forecast. That helps you, our Weather Influencers, spread the word. Now, what does all that mean?

OVERNIGHT: The wedge used the cover of darkness to invade eastern sections with a little cooler air overnight. Temperatures across the eastern third of the state are in the 50s this morning. West of that, readings are in the 60s. A large area of rain sunk eastward and southeastward ward during the afternoon and overnight, giving a nice soaking to the northern third of the state. The entire state is socked in with low clouds this morning and it should stay that way all day. Fog has been a problem over West Central and South Alabama where visibilities have been as low as 1/4 mile. A couple of rounds of showers will push across mainly the Central part of the state during the day as the front sags southward. Temperatures will remain in the 50s over the Tennessee Valley today, and over the 60s over Central Alabama. Readings will fall back into the 50s areawide overnight.

MONDAY: The bit of surface ridging should keep us dry on Monday. Skies will be mostly cloudy, but some sunshine should sneak a peek in the afternoon. Highs should be in the 60s areawide. It will become breezy overnight as southeasterly winds pick up ahead of our next weather maker. Lows Monday night will be in the 50s.

TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER: There could be a few strong storms over northern Texas on Monday with the main threat being hail. Blizzard conditions will break out on the back side of the low with heavy snow and winds gusting to over 50 mph. Nebraska and the Dakotas will get the worst of it. Eastern Colorado and Wyoming will be impacted as well. Strong storms will break out over Texas on Tuesday, spreading into Louisiana and Arkansas Tuesday evening, and reaching the Mississippi River after midnight. Decent instability will combine with significant shear across the Arklatex Tuesday afternoon and evening producing a threat for tornadoes, as well as damaging winds and hail.

FOR US IN ALABAMA: Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and mild with winds becoming gusty. Highs will be in the lower and middle 60s. Storms will reach the Northwest Corner of Alabama before sunrise Wednesday morning. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. A good soaking rain with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will be the story for Wednesday. Highs will be in the 60s as far north as Birmingham with 50s to the north. There is a chance of severe weather south of a line from Eutaw to Clanton to Florala. The main threat would be damaging winds. Tornadoes do not look to be a threat, but you never can tell. Thursday morning lows will be in the 40s over the Northwest and 50s across the rest of North and Central Alabama. Skies should gradually clear during the day with gusty winds remaining. Highs will remain in the 50s over the northern half of the state.

MUCH COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND: Highs Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be limited to the 40s. Lows will be near or below freezing across much of the area. Skies will be partly sunny to partly cloudy through Saturday, with clouds returning in full force Sunday along with another cold rain.

SNEAK PEEK AT CHRISTMAS: Looks like moisture and warmth will return in the days before Christmas. A slow-moving cold front could reach Alabama on Christmas, accompanied by showers and storms. There is some hint of a severe weather outbreak on Christmas Eve to the west of Alabama.

BEACHCAST: A few showers and thunderstorms are in the offing today and tonight along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Tomorrow will be dry but showers and some thunder will return by late Tuesday with a good chance of rain and storms on Wednesday. Severe weather is a possibility then. The rain will end by midday Thursday and then it will turn colder. Highs will be in the 70s until midweek and then falling back into the 60s on Thursday and 50s by Friday.

Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

DANCING WITH THE STATS: Records fell on Friday across Central Alabama. It was 81F, breaking the previous record of 79F set all the way back in 1943. It was 76F in Tuscaloosa, which tied the record for the date. The record in Birmingham for December 9th was easier to break at 74F, but we missed it with more cloudiness keeping the high at only 73F.

WEATHERBRAINS: Last week’s show was a somber one: a remembrance of the deadly Kentucky tornadoes that occurred on December 10, 2021. Trent Okerson and Noah Bergren of WPSD in Paducah joined us along with Christine Wielgos from the NWS Paducah and Dan McKemy from the NWS Louisville. Be prepared to shed a tear or two. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live at live.bigbrainsmedia.com or on James’ YouTube Channel You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1990: Dense fog formed along the Hiwassee River near Calhoun TN, dropping the visibility along a three-mile stretch of I-75 to zero. 12 people were killed in a massive 83-vehicle wreck. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS