Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued for the East Coast of Florida

Nicole remains a subtropical storm as it begins to turn northwestward. Hurricane and storm surge watches issued for the east Florida coast.

SUMMARY OF 9 AM CST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…26.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 495 MI…795 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Altamaha Sound southward to Volusia Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today. A turn westward or west-southwestward is then forecast Tuesday through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nicole is forecast to be at hurricane intensity by Wednesday or Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in the northwest Bahamas by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

*North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge… 3 to 5 ft
*Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach… 2 to 4 ft
*North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay… 1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday: Across the northwest Bahamas, and the central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north across the Southeast United States late this week.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical