Ian’s Rapid Strengthening Trend Has Started This Evening

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…17.0N 80.8W
ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 430 MI…695 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
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A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West,
including the Dry Tortugas

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 80.8 West. Ian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower Florida Keys by Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and the Southeast Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida, given already saturated conditions.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

East Cape Sable, FL, to Card Sound Bridge…1-3 ft
Florida Keys, FL, including Dry Tortugas…1-3 ft
Florida Bay…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical