Cooler Friday; Eyes On The Tropics

MID 90s LATER TODAY: Temperatures will remain about ten degrees above average across Alabama today thanks to a large scale upper high over the region; we project a high in the mid 90s today with a good supply of hazy sunshine. The record high for today at Birmingham (September 21) is 98, set in 2010.

Tomorrow will be dry with a high in the 91-94 degree range, but a cold front will pass through late in the day (no rain is expected with the front), and Friday will be considerably cooler with a high at or just over 80 degrees.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: After starting the day in the cool 50s, the high Saturday will be in the mid 80s with a sunny sky. Then, for Sunday, we expect a mix of sun and clouds, and we will mention the chance of a few showers Sunday afternoon and evening over the northern half of Alabama ahead of a cold front. Moisture will be very limited, and rain amounts will be light and spotty. The high Sunday will be in the low 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Most of the week looks dry at this point with very pleasant temperatures; highs around 80, with lows in the 50s. See the daily Weather Briefing video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: Fiona is now a major, category four hurricane with winds of 130 mph. It is about 170 miles north/northwest of Grand Turk Island, and it will pass a little west of Bermuda late tomorrow night and early Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late tomorrow.

Newly formed Tropical Storm Gaston is in the middle of the Atlantic in the higher latitudes, and is no threat to land.

Most of our attention in coming days will be focused on the tropical wave (Invest 98L) a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next two or three days. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands by late today and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week.

The system will likely be over Cuba, or near the Yucatan channel early next week, possibly as a hurricane. At some point next week a northward turn is likely, but it is too early to know exactly when that turn happens. Global model ensembles suggest the highest threat of impact for now is over the Florida Peninsula (not the panhandle), but again we stress there is no skill in forecasting the placement or intensity of a tropical cyclone more than seven days in advance.

Higher probabilities of impact are east of Alabama (we would be on the dry side), but again this could easily change. No need to change any beach trip plans, just watch for updates.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful weather for high school games Friday night across Alabama; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling into the 60s.

Saturday, Auburn hosts Missouri at Jordan-Hare Stadium (11a CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from near 77 and kickoff, into the low 80s by the second half.

Alabama will host Vanderbilt at Bryant Denny Stadium Saturday evening (6:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be clear with temperatures falling from 81 degrees at kickoff, into the low 70s by the final whistle.

ON THIS DATE IN 1938: One of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in history to impact the Northeast U.S. struck Long Island and Southern New England. This Category 3 Hurricane was traveling at 47 mph when it made landfall near Bellport, New York. This storm caused at least 600 deaths and left approximately 63,000 homeless.

ON THIS DATE IN 1989: Hurricane Hugo made landfall on Isle of Palms, South Carolina as a Category 4 hurricane around midnight (technically landfall was just after midnight on September 22, 1989). Hugo produced tremendous wind and storm surge damage along the coast and even produced hurricane force wind gusts several hundred miles inland into western North Carolina. In fact, Hugo produced the highest storm tide heights ever recorded along the U.S. East Coast, around 20 feet in Bulls Bay, SC near Cape Romain. Total damage from this hurricane is estimated at $10 billion, including $5.2 billion in the United States. There were at least 39 fatalities during the post-storm recovery phase; more people died in South Carolina in the hurricane’s aftermath than during its passage.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

Look for the next Weather Briefing video here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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