Midday Nowcast: More Scattered Storms Later Today

RINSE AND REPEAT: Little change in the day to day forecast for Alabama this time of year. The days are very warm and muggy, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. We are seeing a mix of sun and clouds, and during the afternoon, rain and storms develop randomly across the Alabama landscape. Though rain and storms are possible at anytime, the greatest coverage will come between 2PM and 10PM. The chance of any one spot getting wet each day is 40-60 percent, it won’t rain everywhere every day, but many places stand a good chance of seeing several downpours during the next several days.

Summer storms can pack a punch; the main issue is lightning. Also, they can produce tropical downpours which can lead to areas of isolated flash flooding, plus it is not entirely out of the question to have a few severe storms along the way this week, with gusty winds the main threat. This time of year, it is almost impossible to know exactly when and where storms will occur, you just have to watch radar trends through the day.

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: The weather won’t change much over the long holiday weekend. You will see some sun at times Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but from time to time a passing shower or storm is likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s. Again, be prepared to dodge raindrops along the way, but it will be no “weekend washout”

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge will remain mostly west of Alabama, but we can expect afternoon highs to return to the low 90s by the middle of the week. Expect partly sunny days, with scattered, mainly afternoon and evening storms.

STILL WAITING ON BONNIE: Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was centered near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 67.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 24 mph, and a fast westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday. The system is expected to be near or over Nicaragua by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). We note, if the system crosses into the Pacific Ocean after landfall in Central America, it will get a new name…likely Darby.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: An area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of Texas today. The disturbance has not become any better organized since yesterday, however some slow development is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland tonight or early Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.

Also, a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Slow development of the wave is possible while it moves west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

The next two names up are Colin and Danielle.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in visiting.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 120.4F at Ahwaz, Iran. The lowest observation was -99.0F at Dome C, Antarctica.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 122F at Death Valley, CA. The lowest observation was 26F at Sand Creek, OR.

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