Midday Nowcast: New Day, Same Forecast

It is warm and very humid across Alabama this week, with afternoon highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s for Central Alabama, with some low 90s down south. A weak, stalled boundary continues to sit across Central Alabama and remains the focal point for numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms. Though rain and storms are possible at anytime, the greatest coverage will come between 1PM and 10PM. The chance of any one spot getting wet each day is 40-60 percent, it won’t rain everywhere every day, but many places stand a good chance of seeing several downpours during the next several days.

Summer storms can pack a punch; the main issue is lightning. Also, they can produce tropical downpours which can lead to areas of isolated flash flooding, plus it is not entirely out of the question to have a few severe storms along the way this week, with gusty winds the main threat. It is very hard to know exactly where storms will occur, you just have to watch radar trends through the day. When it is not raining, we are generally seeing a mix of sun and clouds.

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: The weather won’t change much over the long holiday weekend. You will see some sun at times Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but from time to time a passing shower or storm is likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s. Again, be prepared to dodge raindrops along the way, but it will be no “weekend washout”

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge will remain mostly west of Alabama, but we can expect afternoon highs to return to the low 90s by the middle of the week. Expect partly sunny days, with scattered, mainly afternoon and evening storms.

WAITING ON BONNIE: Potential tropical cyclone two continues tracking towards the Caribbean. The disturbance was centered near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 57.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph. A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.

Also, a tropical wave located more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave to its east over the next several days, and some gradual development is possible later this week while the overall system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in visiting.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 120.7F at Reggane, Algeria. The lowest observation was -106.2F at Dome C, Antarctica.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 120F at Death Valley, CA. The lowest observation was 29F at Peter Sinks, UT.

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