Heat Levels Down; Rain Chances Up This Week

NOT AS HOT: The core of the upper high that has been responsible for above average temperatures across the Deep South over the past week is shifting west, meaning lower heat levels this week, and a better coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Humidity values will be high each day, but afternoon highs this week will be mostly in the 85-89 degree range, a good ten degrees lower than those we experienced last week.

We have a few isolated showers on radar early this morning, but most of the showers and storms this week will come during the afternoon and evening hours, between 2:00 and 10:00 p.m. Understand summer soakers are random; no way of knowing exactly when and where they pop up in advance… if you have something planned outdoors you simply have to watch radar trends. It won’t rain everywhere every day, but mostly places stand a good chance of seeing several downpours over the next 5-7 days.

The chance of any one spot getting wet each day is 40-60 percent if you like the numbers game. Higher probabilities will be over the northern half of the state, but scattered storms will form over South Alabama as well each day.

Summer storms can pack a punch; the main issue is lightning. Remember, “when thunder roars get indoors”… when you hear thunder, go inside (or into a vehicle) even if it is not raining.

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: The weather won’t change much over the holiday weekend. You will see some sun at times Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but from time to time a passing shower or storm is likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will remain mostly in the mid to upper 80s, below average for early July in Alabama.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge will try and rebuild, so afternoon highs will likely rise into the low 90s by the middle and end of next week. Partly sunny days, afternoon and evening storms become more widely scattered. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days. The chance of development over the next five days is only 20 percent. This feature will not impact the Central Gulf Coast directly (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach).

Also, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a tropical wave located about 950 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. This system is expected to remain far south of the U.S… moving into Central America in 5-7 days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1915: The temperature at Fort Yukon, Alaska soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record.

ON THIS DATE IN 1995: The Madison County Flood on June 27, 1995, was the worst flash floods Virginia had seen since the remnants of Camille dropped up to 30 inches of rain one night in Nelson County in August 1969. The Nelson County flood ranked as one of the nation’s worst flash floods of this century and resulted in the deaths of 117 people. The Madison County flood killed one person.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

Look for the next Weather Briefing video here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Tags: humid, storms

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