Mesoscale Discussion — Severe Threat Continues for Locations Under Severe T-Storm Watch

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127 continues.

SUMMARY… A QLCS is expected to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes as it moves to the east southeast. A corridor of enhanced damaging wind potential maybe developing with a bowing segment across eastern MS.

DISCUSSION… As of 0130z (8:30 pm), a fast moving QLCS was located across eastern MS near the border with AL. Recent reports of damaging wind gusts (some 75+ mph) have occurred with a bowing segment within the line. As the line shifts eastward into a drier low-level thermodynamic environment across western AL (dewpoints in the low 60s F), significant damaging wind potential may be developing. Hi-res guidance and observation trends suggests the southernmost portion of the line will become dominant as it slides southeastward into the corridor of better low-level moisture advection across southwestern AL. Sufficient buoyancy and vertical shear exist to support a continued severe threat with the QLCS this evening. One uncertainty remains the potential for tornadoes. While low-level shear remains fairly strong (0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2) the drier low-level environment and weaker buoyancy may favor stronger outflow and limit the potential for tornadoes with eastward extent.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather