Latest Mesoscale Discussion — New Tornado Watch Possible for Southern Portions of the Area

SUMMARY… The severe threat across Tornado Watches 063 and 064 continues. A damaging gust or a tornado remains possible over the next few hours. A downstream Tornado Watch will be needed by 04Z.

DISCUSSION… A QLCS continues to meander eastward across central Alabama, with a few semi-discrete, transient supercells ongoing along the Gulf Coastal area. These storms are progressing eastward in an impressively sheared environment, but with gradually waning instability. The area 88-D VADs depict large, curved hodographs, with 300-600 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. While surface temperatures have been cooling into the upper 60s/low 70s F, increasing surface dewpoints may offset temperature-related buoyancy decreases given a continued northward moisture flux.

Nonetheless, given the intense low-level shear and modest deep-layer ascent present, any storm that manages to organize may produce a damaging gust or a tornado. The best chance for a damaging gust would be with the central AL QLCS, with a tornado equally likely embedded within this QLCS, or with any supercell that can sustain low-level rotation from central AL to the Gulf Coast. A downstream Tornado Watch will be needed by 04Z across southern/eastern Alabama into the Western Florida Panhandle to address the continuing severe threat.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather