Latest Mesoscale Discussion — Damaging Winds & A Couple Tornadoes Remain Possible Over the Next Few Hours

| March 22, 2022 @ 6:02 pm

SUMMARY… The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 062-063. Damaging gusts may accompany the stronger bowing segments, and a tornado may also occur with the more sustained supercell structures.

DISCUSSION… A broken QLCS with a history of damaging gusts and tornadoes continues to progress toward central Alabama. The line consists of both bowing segments and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures per MRMS mosaic and KBMX radar data. While low-level moisture continues to advect ahead of the line, the latest surface observations suggest that the QLCS is gradually outpacing the eastward advection of better moisture (i.e. 65+ F surface dewpoints) and resultant buoyancy (500+ J/kg MLCAPE). As such, the overall robustness of the severe wind/tornado threat remains in question. Nonetheless, BMX and MXX VWPs have recently shown very large, curved hodographs, depicting very strong low-level shear capable of supporting damaging gusts and tornadoes. On balance, an appreciable severe threat remains in the current low-CAPE/high shear environment, and a few more damaging gusts/a couple of tornadoes remain possible into early evening.

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Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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