Slight Risk Slightly Expanded Eastward; New Mesoscale Discussion Released

The SPC has updated the Day One Severe Weather Outlook for the rest of today, and they have expanded the Slight Risk for severe storms slightly to the east. The Slight Risk is up for locations along and west of a line from Aliceville (Pickens Co.) to Warrior (Jefferson Co.) to Valley Head (DeKalb Co.). The Marginal Risk stretches just east of that to a line stretching from York (Sumter Co.) to Calera (Shelby Co.) to Anniston (Calhoun Co.).

Here is the text from the latest Mesoscale Discussion:

SUMMARY… Sporadic severe reports remain possible across the region this evening.

DISCUSSION… Small cells across central MS and extending southwest into parts of LA have produced marginally severe hail at times, driven mainly by the warmed air mass and favorable shear for supercells. Large-scale lift is weak here, and the loss of heating will likely lead to a decrease in storm coverage.

Farther north, a more organized line of storms currently stretches from northern MS across far southern TN and into northern AL in association with the cold front. A few cells are ongoing along the front, with elevated storms north of the front as well. Deep-layer shear remains strong, although oriented roughly parallel to the front. However, the slow movement may yet allow for a brief tornado or two with the strongest cells, as effective SRH remains at over 200 m2/s2. Recent radar trends suggest an increase in velocities over northern AL, and this is where the primary severe/tornado risk is focused.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather