Mesoscale Discussion — Watch May Be Issued Soon for the Western & Northern Parts of the Area

Conditions are calm for the moment across Central Alabama, but rain and storms will move into the area this evening. We continue to see the threat of isolated strong to severe storms across the north and west parts of the area, and a watch may be issued over the next couple of hours.

SUMMARY… Damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible from central MS into west-central/far northwestern AL this evening. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION… Coverage and intensity of multicellular thunderstorms has recently increased across southwest MS, likely a result of persistent low-level confluence combined with diurnal destabilization. The expectation is for these storms to continue northeastward into an environment characterized by slightly less buoyancy but slightly more vertical shear. As a result, potential exists for a few of these updrafts to organize into supercells, with an attendant severe threat for damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two. The severe threat is currently expected to stay isolated, tempered by the limited buoyancy and lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, trends will be monitored closely, and a watch may be needed if storm coverage and intensity continue to increase.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather