Tropical Storm Nicholas at 4 p.m.: Hurricane Watch for Portions of the Texas Coast

A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for portions of the Texas Coast.

Tropical Storm Nicholas remains disorganized over the southwestern Gulf, but convection continues to increase, and the storm is expected to intensify over the next 48 hours.

The center of the storm was shifted to the north northwest and hence the official track was shifted ever so slightly to the west. But the entire Texas coast is in the forecast cone, indicating where the center of the storm could end up. Part of the Southwest Louisiana Coast is in the cone as well.

Nicholas is forecast to be a strong tropical storm by the time it reaches the Middle Texas Coast on Tuesday, although it wouldn’t take much more intensification for it to become a hurricane. Proximity to land may be the biggest impediment to this happening. So, the farther the center remains offshore translates into more possible strengthening. About 60 percent of the GFS Ensemble members take the storm near or west of Port O’Connor. The 40% or so that are more toward the Houston area make it stronger.

There is no change in the current forecast, with Nicholas expected to peak at about 65 mph.

Most of the intensity models still keep it a tropical storm, with just one now edging up to near hurricane force. But we will have to keep an eye on the rate of strengthening.

One of the other factors in intensification is shear. Shear is decreasing over the western Gulf, which would lead to intensification. The storm will be traveling over very warm water (30-31C) which will favor intensification. One good thing is that the Oceanic Heat Content over the western Gulf is not very high. That would help to limit rapid intensification.

The SHIPS Model Rapid Intensification probabilities are very low, less than 15% in all categories.

Here is the latest advisory:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2021

…NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST…
…STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS COAST…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO FREEPORT,
TEXAS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS, INCLUDING ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO
BAY, AND MATAGORDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO SARGENT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO BAY, AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT ARANSAS TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO FREEPORT TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE,
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST. NICHOLAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLOWER NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NICHOLAS WILL PASS NEAR
OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS
ON MONDAY, AND MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH OR CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL NICHOLAS REACHES THE NORTHWEST GULF
COAST MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
KEY MESSAGES FOR NICHOLAS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES

RAINFALL: NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF
8 TO 16 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES, ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TODAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ACROSS THE REST OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN HIGHLY URBANIZED METROPOLITAN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING.

OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF TAMAULIPAS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO MONDAY.

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

PORT O’CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS TX INCLUDING MATAGORDA BAY…3-5 FT
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT O’CONNOR, TX…2-4 FT
SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND, TX INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY…2-4FT
BAFFIN BAY, CORPUS CHRISTI BAY, ARANSAS BAY AND SAN ANTONIO
BAY…2-4 FT
HIGH ISLAND, TX TO INTRACOASTAL CITY INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AND
CALCASIEU LAKE..1-3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS MONDAY MORNING, MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TORNADOES: A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NICHOLAS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical