1 pm Advisory — Ida Strengthens to a Hurricane & Makes Landfall on the Isle of Youth

SUMMARY OF 1 PM CDT INFORMATION
LOCATION…21.6N 82.7W
ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM E OF THE CENTER OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 145 MI…245 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

FORECAST DISCUSSION
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located by Cuban radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass over the Isle of Youth during the next hour or so, move over western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Sunday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before the center moves over western Cuba later today. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has recently been observed on Cayo Largo, Cuba.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

HAZARDS TO LAND
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

• Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft
• Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
• Vermilion Bay…4-7 ft
• Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border…4-7 ft
• MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…3-5 ft
• Lake Pontchartrain…4-6 ft
• Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft
• Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA…2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over the Isle of Youth and are expected to spread over portions of western Cuba in the hurricane warning area by later this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are already beginning to reach portions of western Cuba and will continue through early Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical