10 am Advisory — Grace Strengthens Into a Category 1 Hurricane

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…19.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 350 MI…560 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.30 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 82.2 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move away from Grand Cayman today. Grace is expected to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico early Friday.

Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the center of Grace reaches the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Cayman Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State of Mexico….4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides possible in Veracruz.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical