7 pm Advisory — Grace Continues to Produce Heavy Rains Over Parts of Haiti & The Dominican Republic

SUMMARY OF 7 PM CDT INFORMATION
LOCATION…18.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE, HAITI
ABOUT 325 MI…525 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY, JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey.
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.

FORECAST DISCUSSION
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti tonight. It will then move between Jamaica and southeastern Cuba on Tuesday, near the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and approach the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to regain tropical storm status on Tuesday. Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS TO LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti through tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic…5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands….2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical