An Early Morning Look at Fred

A tropical storm watch has been issued from the Alabama/Florida border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida, south of Tallahassee.

There are signs this morning that Fred is re-organizing into a tropical storm west of Key West.

The forecast track has been shifted just a little east to indicate a landfall on the western Florida Panhandle, near Pensacola or Navarre.

The intensity forecsatt is unchanged, with Fred coming in as a 50 mph tropical storm.

Timing is unchanged with landfall forecast for around midnight Monday evening.

It will bring wind, rain, riptides, high surf and a storm surge of 1-3 feet to the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River on the MS/LA border to the Suwanee River in the Florida Big Bend.

We will have detailed coverage all day today and Monday on the latest on Fred.

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 23…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Corrected to include Next Intermediate Advisory Time

…REMNANTS OF FRED TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 450 MI…725 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.86 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
north-central Gulf coast from the Alabama/Florida border eastward
to Ochlockonee River, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn toward
the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system
will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the
east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and
move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early
Tuesday morning.

Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is
expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later today, with
gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of
Mexico until it makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday

Keys and southern Florida… 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm
totals of 8 inches are anticipated.

Through Tuesday

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle… 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas… 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow…
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile
Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay… 1-3
ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Category: ALL POSTS