Sun And Scattered Storms Through The Weekend; Still Watching Fred
ROUTINE SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES: Alabama’s weather won’t change much through Sunday… we expect a mix of sun and clouds each day with the usual round of daily scattered showers and thunderstorms, most active between 12:00 noon and 10:00 p.m. The chance of any one specific spot getting wet each day is 40-50 percent; the high today will be in the low 90s, close to 90 tomorrow, and in the upper 80s Sunday. Pretty much what you expect in mid-August around here.
NEXT WEEK: Fred, which should be a broad tropical low, will bring deeper tropical moisture into the state next week. While the heaviest rain will most likely be east of Alabama, we do expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s, which is about 5 degrees below average for this time of the year. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
FRED: Tropical Depression Fred remains very disorganized this morning, on the northern coast of Cuba. The system will pass over the Florida Keys tomorrow as a minimal tropical storm, and then through the far eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday. It moves into the eastern Florida panhandle Sunday night, most likely well under hurricane strength.
Some notes on Fred this morning…
*Confidence is high Fred won’t become a hurricane in the Gulf due to interaction with the Florida peninsula and shear. The main impact will be rip currents and lots of rain.
*As you look on the NHC forecast map, remember, this most likely will be a broad tropical low, and not a dot on a map. The heaviest rain from Fred will be along and east of the circulation center.
*Inland, the heaviest rain as a direct result of Fred will be over the Florida peninsula, Georgia, and the Carolinas. But, the system will pull deeper tropical moisture into Alabama next week, and we will see an increase in the number of showers and storms.
*There will be a high danger of rip currents along the entire central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) Sunday and Monday. Expect double red flags in many areas.
*A few isolated tornadoes will be possible across the Florida peninsula Sunday, on the east side of Fred.
*This forecast CAN still change; keep an eye on updates. When it comes to tropical systems, if you are working with old information, you are working with bad information.
INVEST 95L: A small low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic, reaching portions of the Leeward Islands Saturday night, and Virgin Islands on Sunday.
There is a 70 percent chance this becomes a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours, and the name will be Grace. Too early to know if this will impact the Gulf of Mexico or the U.S. We do note most models bring this up to hurricane strength in a few days.
ON THIS DATE IN 2004: Hurricane Charley made landfall on the southwest coast of Florida near Cayo Costa, just west of Ft. Myers around 3:45 p.m. EDT with maximum sustained surface winds near 150 mph.Charley was initially expected to hit further north in Tampa, and caught many Floridians off-guard due to a sudden change in the storm’s track as it approached the state. Along its path, Charley caused 10 deaths and $16.9 billion in damage to insured residential property, making it the second costliest hurricane in United States history at the time. Charley was a compact, fast-moving storm, which limited the scope and severity of the damage.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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