7 pm Advisory — Fred Temporarily Weakens to a Depression Over Central Hispaniola

SUMMARY OF 7:00 PM CDT INFORMATION:

LOCATION…19.2N 71.6W
ABOUT 55 MI…85 KM SE OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
ABOUT 170 MI…275 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located by satellite-derived wind data near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 71.6 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola overnight, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday.

Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little, if any change, in strength is expected overnight. Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic…3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba…1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas…3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur in brief squalls over portions of the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, will also be possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical