Midday Nowcast: More Heat, Humidity, and Afternoon Storms

New day, same forecast as Alabama’s weather will not be changing much through the end of the week. The days continue to feature a mix of sun and clouds while afternoon temperatures climb into the low and mid 90s. Heat index values are over 100°, and could climb over 105° at times, which is advisory criteria for Central Alabama. The Heat Advisory continues across much of Central Alabama until 9PM this evening.

Again, I would not be surprised to see additional heat advisories in the coming days for parts of Alabama as the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will result in dangerous heat levels at times.

During the afternoon and evening hours, we continue to see scattered showers and storms meandering about the Alabama. Most of the showers and storms occur from 12PM-10PM daily with the odds of any one spot getting wet reach day are in the 35-55 percent range. We are seeing these develop as we approach the midday hours across Central Alabama.

Some storms could be strong at times with gusty winds, tremendous amounts of lightning, which causes window shaking thunder. Also, some locations will see a soaking, which could cause some isolated flash flooding, but just down the road it will be dry. Again, these storms are completely random, and you just have to watch radar trends when they start developing.

TROPICAL STORM FRED: Latest update from NHC: The center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 69.7 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph, and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and evening, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected later today and tonight as the center of Fred crosses Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

For now, the NHC is keeping the system under hurricane strength through the time of landfall, somewhere along the Northern Gulf Coast near Apalachicola. However, remember 4 and 5 day NHC track forecasts have average errors of 175 and 200 miles, respectively. Meaning, of course, the forecast of the track and intensity could easily change in coming days.

Remember, the main impact (in terms of wind, rain, storm surge, isolated tornadoes) will be along and east of the circulation center. The current forecast keeps the Alabama Gulf Coast, and the western part of the Florida Panhandle (Gulf Shores, Pensacola, Navarre Beach, Destin) on the “good”, west, offshore flow side. If you have a beach trip planned for this weekend and early next week, monitor Fred’s progress and check updates to the forecast. I would not make any changes to your plans now, but be ready to do that by Friday if needed.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical Atlantic near 20 mph. This system could reach portions of the Leeward Islands by late Saturday. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent. This could become Grace.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in visiting.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 120.6F at Omidieh, Iran. The lowest observation was -103.5F at Vostok, Antarctica.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 120F at Death Valley, CA. The lowest observation was 20F at Peter Sinks, UT.

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