1 pm Update: Elsa is Making Landfall on the South Coast of Cuba

SUMMARY OF 1 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…22.2N 81.6W
ABOUT 85 MI…140 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida

FORECAST DISCUSSION & OUTLOOK
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 81.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to continue to move over west-central Cuba for the next several hours, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected while the center moves over land. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…

Southern coast of Cuba…2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Bonita Beach, FL to Ochlockonee River including Tampa Bay…2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay…1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass…1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical