The 10 am Update Finds That Elsa has Weakened to a Tropical Storm

SUMMARY OF 10 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…17.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 40 MI…70 KM S OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 350 MI…560 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, CinemaScope, and Matanzas

FORECAST DISCUSSION & OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Jamaica and over eastern Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba Sunday night or Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…

Southern coast of Cuba…3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola…2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.

Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical