Elsa Nearing the Lesser Antilles; Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Jamaica & Parts of the Dominican Republic

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…11.4N 54.7W
ABOUT 345 MI…560 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 460 MI…735 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH…44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Grenada and its dependencies
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque
* Jamaica

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 54.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, and are possible in Jamaica Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts of 5 inches, is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, is possible on Saturday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical