A Few Strong Thunderstorms Possible Over Western Parts of North/Central Alabama Throughout the Afternoon & Into the Evening

SUMMARY… Thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the afternoon across portions of MS, AL, and southwest TN. A few of these storms may become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts and/or isolated hail.

DISCUSSION… Broad low-level confluence is contributing to banded multicellular storm development across much of MS and into southwest TN. Thus far, updrafts have been rather transient with relatively short duration. However, the air mass continues to further destabilize amid strong heating and only partly cloudy skies. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg from most of MS, with around 1500 J/kg reaching across much of western TN. Instability drops off quickly with eastern extent, with only around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE across central AL. Even so, persistent low-level confluence is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm coverage, and vertical shear is strong enough to support a few more organized updrafts. Additionally, greater storm coverage increases the likelihood of storm mergers and resulting brief updraft intensification. Primary threat with any stronger storms is damaging wind gusts, although isolated hail is also possible.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather