High & Moderate Risks Removed; Severe Storms Remain Possible Through the Rest of Your Thursday

As of the 8:00 pm update from the Storm Prediction Center, the Level 5 out of 5 High Risk and the Level 4 out of 5 Moderate Risk have been discontinued for the rest of your Thursday night.

This does leave a Level 3 out of 5 Enhanced Risk up for nearly all of North/Central Alabama north of a line from Pickensville (Pickens Co.) to Orrville (Dallas Co.) to Tuckersburg (Chambers Co.). Much of the rest of Central Alabama south of the Enhanced Risk is in a Level 2 Slight Risk down to a line from Phenix City (Russell Co.) to Briar Hill (Pike Co.). Locations south of that line in Central Alabama remain in a Level 1 out of 5 Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Supercells capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible this evening in North/Central Alabama. Here is the text from the latest Day One Severe Weather Outlook:

The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley with a pronounced dry slot wrapping through the base of the trough. The core of a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet is located within the dry slot. A plume of mid-level moisture extends from south-central Alabama northeastward across northwest Georgia. Several strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing along this corridor. RAP analysis currently shows moderate instability in place across most of Alabama where MLCAPE is estimated to be from 1200 to 1800 J/kg. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 70 to 80 kt range will support supercells. The potential for supercells is expected to persist through much of the evening. Low-level shear will support a tornado threat with the more dominant supercells. The instability and strong deep-layer shear will also support a wind damage and large hail threat this evening.

Further north into western and middle Tennessee, moderate instability is also analyzed by the RAP, with MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. A cluster of severe storms with an embedded supercell is ongoing to the southwest of Nashville, Tennessee. This cluster will continue to move east-northeastward across middle Tennessee this evening. The Nashville, TN WSR-88D VWP has about 75 kt of 0-6 km shear with 0-3 km storm relative helicity of almost 600 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat over the next few hours. A strong tornado will be possible. Supercells will also be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. The wind damage threat could become enhanced later this evening as the convection becomes increasingly linear. Wind gusts of greater than 65 knots may occur along the leading edge of bow echoes.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather