Another Shift in Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Eta

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.7N 84.8W
ABOUT 140 MI…220 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 84.8 West. Eta is moving
toward the southwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with
some reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through
tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow
northward motion is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will remain over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening will be possible tonight and Tuesday. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and then continue
through the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash
flooding is possible across inundated urban areas of southeast
Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over
the next several days.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south
and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical