Delta at 10 pm: Hurricane Conditions and a Life-Threatening Storm Surge Still Occurring Within the Warning Area

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT
LOCATION…ABOUT 70 MI…110 KM NE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.71 INCHES

WATCHES & WARNINGS
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
• Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Louisiana including Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
• High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
• East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans
• Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

DISCUSSION & OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Delta is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning. A motion toward the northeast is then expected through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that time, the system is forecast to move across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should become a tropical storm, and then a tropical depression, on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

• Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…6-10 ft
• Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA…4-6 ft
• Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…3-5 ft
• Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River…2-4 ft
• Lake Borgne…2-4 ft
• Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…1-3 ft
• Mouth of the Pearl River to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…1-3 ft
• Port O’Connor, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake…1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area, and should continue during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning areas through early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme eastern Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and over Alabama, central and eastern Mississippi, southern Tennessee and the western Florida Panhandle on Saturday.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical