7:00 am Update Shows Laura Down to Category 2 Status

…DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ALONG MUCH OF THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…31.2N 93.3W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM N OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.64 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 93.3 West. Laura is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion should continue throughout the day. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will move northward across western and northern Louisiana through this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). An observing site in Alexandria, Louisiana, recently reported a wind gust to 74 mph (119 km/h)

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 MB (28.64 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake…15-20 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City…10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay…8-12 ft
Sea Rim State Park to Johnson Bayou including Sabine Lake…4-8 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River…4-7 ft
High Island to Sea Rim State Park…2-4 ft
The mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne…1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Life-threatening storm surge with large and destructive waves will continue within the Storm Surge Warning area this morning. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and floodwaters will not fully recede for several days after the storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana this morning. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning areas throughout the day.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, across Arkansas: 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 18 inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding.

Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic States.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical