Laura Expected to Strengthen Into a Major Hurricane by Wednesday Night

NHC UPDATE SUMMARY OF 1:00 PM CDT INFORMATION

LOCATION: 560 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas
MAXIMUM WINDS: 75 mph
MOVEMENT: west-northwest at 16 MPH
MINIMUM PRESSURE: 990 MB or 29.24 in

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Intracoastal City to the west of Morgan City Louisiana

Key messages remain the same from 11:00 am update.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 87.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those areas on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 MB (29.24 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake…9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park…6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar…3-5 ft
Galveston Bay…3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass…2-4 ft
The mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne…3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations:

Western Cuba…Additional totals of 1 inch or less.

The United States…From Wednesday night into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast from western Louisiana into east Texas, and northward into portions of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical