Ringling Bros.

TD-14 Moving Northwestward Toward the Yucatan Peninsula

| August 21, 2020 @ 3:51 pm

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…17.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 255 MI…415 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 MB (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches.

Information taken from the latest National Hurricane Center Public Advisory as of 4:00 pm.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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