Isaias Expected to Be at Hurricane Strength When it Reaches the Carolinas

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…28.5N 79.8W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI…585 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay southward from Smith Point

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Fenwick Island Delaware northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 79.8 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east coast through tonight. The center of Isaias will then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region late Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A 51 mph (82 km/h) wind gust was recently measured at NOAA buoy 41009, just off the coast of Cape Canaveral. NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Cape Canaveral reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 MB (29.39 inches).

KEY MESSAGES

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of 2 to 4 feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these areas should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to Maryland through early Tuesday. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina Monday night, and strong tropical-storm-force winds are likely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area.

3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.

4. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread northward across the remainder of the U.S east coast on Tuesday and early Wednesday. A tropical storm watch is in effect through Long Island Sound and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued on Monday.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical