Gonzalo Accelerates Toward the Southern Winward Islands
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…10.0N 54.2W
ABOUT 485 MI…780 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 54.2 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward- to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is still possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week.
Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 MB (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Saturday within the Hurricane Watch area.
RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
About the Author (Author Profile)
Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.Subscribe
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