MCS Heading Our Way; Strong/Severe Storms Possible By This Afternoon

As of 9:50 am, all of North and Central Alabama appear to be free from any rainfall at this point, but our eyes are focused on the MCS that is currently moving through the northeastern parts of Arkansas and into the western parts of Tennessee and the northwestern parts of Mississippi. There is only one severe thunderstorm warning in effect at this point for portions of Prairie, Lonoke, Faulkner, White, & Pulaski counties in Arkansas. It will be a few hours until that will begin to move into the northwestern parts of the state.

The Storm Prediction Center continues a Slight Risk for severe storms for the western third of Central Alabama and a Marginal Risk for the rest of the western half of Central Alabama and into the east-central parts of the area. The main window for stronger to severe storms will be from 1:00 pm this afternoon until around 10:00 pm tonight. Main threats will be from damaging wind gusts up to 60 MPH and hail up to one-inch in diameter. There is a non-zero threat for a brief tornado but the atmospheric profile for today shows that those will be unlikely.

The above HRRR animation shows the activity beginning to move into the northwestern parts of the state by the midday hour and progressing southeastward while weakening somewhat. The threats for damaging winds and hail will be highest during the 1:00 pm to 5:00 pm and will lessen throughout the rest of the evening. There looks to be more showers and storms moving into the area behind the dissipating MCS, but we just don’t believe at this point that those will be strong to severe.

We’ll keep you posted throughout the day and we’ll be here if any watches or warnings are issued for anyone in North/Central Alabama.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather