Late Morning Update: Increasing Sunshine This Afternoon, Rain Returns Late Tomorrow, Another Extended Period of Wet, Mild Weather

Starting to update the forecast for the noon package, and the key questions are how much rain over the next two weeks, and the potential for severe weather in Alabama Wednesday.

First, a beautiful Sunday is in progress across Alabama. A passing disturbance is triggering a few clouds, but no showers across the state. These clouds will clear out of the Birmingham area before noon and out of East Alabama by mid-afternoon and sunshine will be the rule after the clouds depart. At least until they move back in late tonight ahead of our next weathermaker.

Temperatures are warming through the 50s heading for afternoon highs in the middle 60s across the east and upper 60s across western sections. Temperatures will flirt with 70F in places like Demopolis and Troy.

Readings tonight will drop into the 40s, ranging from in Gadsden to 43F in Alex City to 46-47F in Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. Clouds will begin increasing late tonight, with skies becoming cloudy early Monday morning from the west.

Monday will be mostly cloudy with a freshening southeasterly and southerly wind. Those winds will gust to over 20 mph at times. High temperatures will warm into the middle and upper 60s in most locations, with lower 70s from Demopolis to Montgomery, and Troy.

Showers will move in from the west Monday evening but will not exit the area until late Tuesday evening.

Rainfall amounts will be light, less than one-quarter of an inch.

Tuesday highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

A disturbance will approach Alabama from the west on Wednesday. A warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be in place across Alabama Wednesday afternoon. There will be decent bulk wind shear of at least 40 knows, which means that wind will increase with height, making organized storms possible. 850 millibar winds (5,000 feet above the surface) will be strong Wednesday afternoon, making damaging winds possible. Hail will also be a threat. Low-level helicities will be low, making significant tornadoes unlikely, but there is still a low-end tornado threat.

Here is a predicted sounding for 7 p.m. Wednesday near Birmingham. It shows moderate CAPE (instability), decent bulk shear, and low turning of the winds in the lower atmosphere.

Alabama will find itself in the battle zone as a boundary remains over the state into the weekend. Raini will be likely until Sunday afternoon.

Rainfall amounts between Wednesday and Sunday will average between 1.5 and 3 inches. Since it will be spread over 5 days, significant flooding issues are not likely, but the additional rainfall will continue to raise water levels on area waterways.

On in the longer term, the GFS continues to predict that there will be 4-9 inches of rain across North and Central Alabama between now and March 23rd. That consistent signal for excessive rainfall has been there for several runs. There is of course inconsistency about exactly where the heaviest rains will fall. It will be interesting to see if these early model outputs translate into reality.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS