Dry Weather Continues; Lower Heat Levels By Thursday

HOT AFTERNOON: Temperatures are generally in the mid 90s across Alabama this afternoon, but a few have wondered into the upper 90s… hot far from record levels. Hottest so far for Birmingham (as of 3p CT) today is 97… four degrees shy of the record high for September 16, 101 set in 1927.

REST OF THE WEEK: The weather won’t change much tomorrow and Wednesday… hot and dry with a good supply of sunshine both days. Highs will be well up into the 90s, a good ten degrees above average for mid-September in Alabama. Then, a “backdoor” cold front will push through the state Wednesday night… this will drop temperatures about 10-12 degrees by Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s on those two days, with lows well down in the 60s.

Unfortunately we really don’t see much chance of meaningful rain this week; a few sprinkles or showers are possible along the front Wednesday evening, but most places will stay dry. Drought conditions will intensify over East Alabama, and develop over West Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Dry weather continues; look for a good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday with afternoon highs generally between 87 and 90. Lows will be in the 60s.

NEXT WEEK: A surface front will drift down toward the Alabama/Tennessee border Monday, and could produce a few showers over the northern part of the state, but for now it looks like moisture will be pretty limited, and rain amounts, if any, should be light. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

And, remember, as you look at model output statistics (MOS) like posted below, remember you will need to add about five degrees to the forecast afternoon highs due to the lack of soil moisture.

TROPICS: Hurricane Humberto is packing sustained winds of 85 mph this afternoon, and is forecast to briefly become a major, category three hurricane tomorrow as it moves away from the U.S. in the Atlantic. It is forecast to pass just north of Bermuda Thursday morning before becoming post-tropical over the North Atlantic over the weekend.

ELSEWHERE: A disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico will move into Texas tomorrow… just a low chance of development before it moves inland. A tropical wave in the Atlantic has a high chance of development over the next few days, but it will move north and recurve harmlessly without getting close to the U.S. later this week.

ON THIS DATE IN 2004: At 51 minutes after midnight on 16 September 2004, the northern eyewall of powerful Hurricane Ivan moved onto land near Gulf Shores as an upper Category 3 hurricane. The official time of landfall was 2:02 AM CDT. Bringing with it 130 mph surface winds and an historic storm surge, preliminary estimates show that the magnitude and extent of the damage and destruction over Baldwin County and Escambia and Santa Rosa counties of Northwest Florida likely exceeded that of both Hurricane Frederic (September 1979) and Hurricane Opal (October 1995). Additionally, Hurricane Ivan was very close to the magnitude of damage and destruction caused by the Hurricane of 1926 which ravaged the aforementioned counties east of Mobile Bay. Hurricane Ivan caused a preliminary total of 13 deaths in the following counties combined: Baldwin County, Alabama, Escambia County, Florida, Santa Rosa County, Florida. Damage over 5 billion dollars.

Ivan produced estimated maximum winds of 60 to 80 mph generally southwest of line from Prattville to Livingston. A few spots may have reached 90 mph in this area. Most other locations across central alabama had estimated maximum wind speeds of 50 to 60 mph, with a few isolated spots reaching 75 mph. Damage was severe well inland… some of the hardest hit communities included Atmore, Brewton, Evergreen, Monroeville, Camden, and Demopolis.

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I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten students at Center Point Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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