10 p.m. Advisory: Dorian Stronger, Now Category Two Hurricane, Expected to be Cat 4 at Landfall

Official track and foreacst uncertainty cone for the 10 p.m. advisory

The new advisory is out and Hurricane Dorian continues to strengthen despite dry air on the southern side of the center.

Top winds are now 105 mph, making Dorian a category two. The central pressure is down to 977 millibars.

FAST FACTS AT 10 PM CDT
———————————————–
LOCATION…23.3N 68.4W
ABOUT 295 MI…470 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 580 MI…930 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…977 MB…28.85 INCHES

The presence of an upper level low to the southwest of Dorian has caused soem wind shear and dry air entrainment. This will relax tomorrow and strengthening should continue. The forecast has been stepped up a bit to bring the hurricane to 140 mph by Sunday evening. This would make it a category four hurricane.

The track has been shifted a little southward. It is also a little slower, delaying landfall until late Monday next between West Palm Beach and Vero Beach before turning more northwest.

The more westward track may have already started, as evidenced by the latest recon plots.

Here are key messages from the National Hurricane Center:

1. THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS, AND HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. RESIDENTS
SHOULD HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AND LISTEN TO ADVICE GIVEN
BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

2. THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHEST
STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR. RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN
IN PLACE, KNOW IF THEY ARE IN A HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE, AND
LISTEN TO ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

3. THE RISK OF DEVASTATING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AND PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO INCREASE, ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.

4. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF DORIAN, HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

As far as Alabama goes, it is too early to determine if we will feel significant impacts. The more westward track would increase the threat of course.

The beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida are another concern. Tonight’s track lends itself to getting Dorian into the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The storm is expected to turn northward eventually as the ridge to the north of it weakens. The timing of that is critical. Stay tuned.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical