SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Storms will continue moving across portions of western and middle Tennessee this afternoon, with a few of the strongest cells capable of producing locally gusty/damaging winds. WW is not expected at this time, due to the expected limited/local nature of the risk.

DISCUSSION…Latest radar loop shows storms moving eastward across western and into middle Tennessee, in a loosely organized, arcing band. These storms are occurring in conjunction with an MCV crossing the Tennessee/Kentucky border area near Fort Campbell KY. Other/more isolated storms acre occurring east of the main band, including along an outflow boundary sagging southward across northern portions of Tennessee. Daytime heating of the moist pre-frontal airmass has resulted in moderate destabilization (mixed-layer CAPE 1500 to 2000 J/kg), which will support a continuation of convection through the afternoon. However, area VWPs show only 15 to 25 kt west-southwesterly flow in the lower half of the troposphere, which should limit overall potential for storm organization — and thus degree of risk. Still, a few storms will be capable of producing locally gusty/damaging winds, particularly with any transient/stronger segments within the main convective band.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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