SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…A storm or two may acquire transient rotation/weak supercell characteristics overnight. A brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out. The forecast coverage/magnitude of the tornado risk will probably preclude a tornado watch issuance unless observational trends change.

DISCUSSION…Radar imagery from KLIX shows a storm with weak supercell structure southeast of New Orleans moving north within an outer convective band from Tropical Storm Barry. The 06z Slidell, LA raob depicted weak buoyancy (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE) with a very moist profile and poor lapse rates. However, inputting the observed storm motion of storms near the central Gulf Coast is yielding between 200-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. Given the quasi-discrete storm mode in the aforementioned environment in the northeast quadrant of Tropical Storm Barry, it is possible weak low-level mesocyclones could episodically develop over the next several hours. A brief/weak tornado is the main threat.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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