SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Scattered storms are expected to pose a damaging-wind risk over the course of the afternoon. A WW is not expected due to the sporadic nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION…Recent observations/satellite imagery indicate the presence of a couple of well-organized, compact MCVs – one over central Alabama near BMX and another over far southeastern Arkansas just west of GLH. These MCVs were associated with forward-propagating convection and mature cold pools that were migrating southeastward into a destabilizing airmass with moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) and weak westerly flow aloft. Given the weak convective inhibition across the region, the expectation is that storms will continue to exhibit modest organization associated with the MCVs as they traverse the discussion area while posing a very isolated damaging-wind risk. In between these two areas, convection will gradually deepen and also pose an isolated damaging wind risk. The overall magnitude of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance, however.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions