SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…A cluster of storms will likely persist into the afternoon. A few damaging wind gusts/downbursts will be possible. A WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION…A cluster of storms associated with an MCV have been steadily increasing in coverage over the past hour. Given the weak flow throughout the depth of the troposphere, the amount of storm organization that occurs will be cold-pool driven. The north-south axis of greatest buoyancy roughly lies in western Mississippi where dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s F. Currently, storms in northwest Mississippi have a more established cold pool with storms struggling to maintain themselves farther east. The most likely scenario is for the established cluster to continue to propagate south/southeastward as the downstream airmass continues to destabilize through the afternoon. The western and eastern extent of the threat is more uncertain. Forecast MLCAPE of around 2500-3000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will support strong updrafts. Damaging winds/downbursts will be the main threats with this activity. Lack of storm organization lowers confidence in the need for a WW. Trends will continue to be monitored.

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